Wonderful Weekend Weather, Big Changes Next Week
It has been oh so nice today as most locations were severe clear, with the exception of a few of those very high, wispy cirrus clouds. Temperatures were able to climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. I am having to do a double take at the calendar as it is feeling like the last weekend of March, instead of the last weekend of January with temperatures this afternoon 10-15 degrees above average.
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For tonight, expect another gorgeous night, with mainly clear conditions and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
FOR SUNDAY: The winds of change will begin to blow. Our winds will increase out of the south which is going to start bringing in more warm and moist air. It will be another warm day as afternoon highs in the lower and mid-70s, but we will not see as much sun as clouds will be increasing. Tomorrow should stay dry, but overnight Sunday night, there certainly could be a few showers moving across Alabama.
VERY MILD MONDAY: As we start the work week and the month of February, it will be mainly cloudy, and very mild, with afternoon highs once again in the mid-70s. There will be the chance of scattered showers throughout the day. However, on Monday, we are going to be watching the vigorous storm system developing to our west.
STORMY TUESDAY: Some good news regarding the threat of severe storms Tuesday. The global models have trended farther north with the surface low, and the associated upper support in recent runs. The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the higher risk a little westward, but it still includes the northwest corner of Alabama.
From the get go, the greatest severe weather threat has been over portions of the Mid-South and as far south as North-Central Alabama. However, all of Alabama is included in a risk for severe weather and it still looks as though the main threat will come Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, roughly from 4:00 p.m. Tuesday through 4:00 a.m. Wednesday.
The current set-up will be favorable for all modes of severe weather to be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. However, the tornado threat for Alabama has lessened somewhat, but is still there. Highest risk of a tornado with this event will be in places like Memphis; in our state higher tornado probabilities will be up around Muscle Shoals, in the northwest corner of the state. Storms will evolve into a long line Tuesday night with potential for damaging straight line winds, and some hail. Severe storms or not, we should all see a nice soaking and rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely, which is below flood guidance and therefore flooding is not expected.
This storm system is still four days out and a lot can and will change. No need to be worried or anxious, but we do want folks to know that next week, they will need to stay weather aware. Of course, if you have some free time this weekend, it won’t hurt to review your severe weather preparedness plan.
A LOT OF WINTER LEFT: Don’t get use to the beautiful and warm weather this weekend. Behind the storm system, temperatures will take a tumble as we should see afternoon highs back in the lower 50s and overnight lows will once again be near the freezing mark. The weather should dry through the end of the week and through next weekend. Each day will feature a mix of sun and clouds.