Rain on the Way, Strong Storms Late Tuesday
A cold front continues to sink south towards Alabama today and will be adding additional uplift to allow for showers to develop the rest of today and through the overnight hours.
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PERIODS OF RAIN: The frontal boundary will settle into Alabama and will stall. A lot of the forecast depends on where the front stalls as the heavier rainfall will be along and to the south of the front. As of now, it appears the front stalls through Central Alabama, likely between Birmingham and Montgomery. Starting tonight, and through Tuesday night, several upper-level impulses will move along the boundary across the state and will be providing several rounds of rain that should give us all a soaking the next 48 hours. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches look likely between tonight and Tuesday night. Flooding is not expected since the rain will fall over an extended time, but just know that the rain gear will be needed as these impulses cross the state rather rapidly in the southwest to northeast zonal flow that will develop across the state.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS: Unfortunately, before all is said and done this week, it appears we may have to deal with some strong to severe storms. We mentioned it yesterday, but things are looking more favorable for a dynamic storm system to develop in the southern Plains and head towards the Southeast. With these type of event, it depends on the track of the low. Today we are beginning to see better model agreement with the low staying on a more favorable track, to our north and west, and is why we think strong to severe storms will be possible this week. Being a dynamic system, we should see a robust warm sector develop and that means instability will be in place as well. Here is the latest day three convective outlook issued by the SPC.
Once again, here is what each of the risk categories mean. A lot to watch the next few days, as a lot can and will change, but now is the time to get prepared and go over your severe weather plan.
The main timing for severe weather in Alabama looks to be from 5PM Tuesday evening through 5AM Wednesday. All modes of severe weather look to be possible, and that means, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes, however, at this time, the main threat looks to come from damaging straight-line winds. Rainfall totals of an inch will be possible on Wednesday with some of the heavier downpours.
COLDER AND DRIER: The system will exit late Wednesday, and a cold front will swing through the state. That will allow for much colder and drier weather to return to Alabama. A deep long wave trough will develop over the eastern half of the county and which is going to allow for those colder temperatures to return. Thursday and Friday should feature plenty of sunshine and dry conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s, and overnight lows will once again be in the 30s. Temperatures begin to moderate heading into the weekend, as soothing 60s return, and it should remain sunny and dry.
Have a great night!!!