Spring-Like Warmth, Rain Returns
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MONDAY: A weak surface front approaches from the north and we should see increasing clouds and the threat of a few widely scattered showers Monday, mainly over the northern half of the state. However, due to the lack of moisture and the lack of dynamic support, rain amounts will be light and spotty and I think many locations will stay dry. It will be another mild day as highs should be in the lower and mid 70s.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORMS: Tuesday should be dry, warm, and breezy as afternoon highs should climb into the upper 70s. We will still forecast a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night ahead of a cold front, and there will be the threat of some strong storms overnight. The main surface low and dynamics will be passing north of Alabama. However, we will have to watch this system carefully as there will be a lot of shear, and some instability that could allow for a few and potentially strong storms. Storms should move into the state, and while they could bring gusty winds, it still doesn’t look like a major severe weather setup for now. We should see the rain and storms ending during the morning hours of Wednesday, and much of the day should be dry. Rainfall totals should be in the one half to once inch range, and flooding is not expected.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY: Yesterday, the GFS showed a potent shortwave diving south, which would cause a surface low pressure system to develop and track along the Interstate 10 corridor. The latest runs of the model still show the low to the south, but much weaker. At this time we are going to maintain the threat of scattered rain showers in the forecast for late Thursday and Thursday night. With the low to our south, it looks like no threat of severe weather. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We will see the rain ending and rapidly improving weather for Friday. Behind the system , expect sunny and drier weather return for Friday and it is expected to continue into the following weekend, with moderating temperatures. Friday will see highs in the 60s, with 70s for the weekend.
Have a great evening and a wonderful week ahead!