Continued Warm, Rain on the Way
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Clouds have been increasing in coverage as the more moist air continues to stream into the state. It has been a very warm and muggy day as temperatures were able to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon. It remains a breezy day as well as the stiff south wind persist ahead of the storm system. We are watching the rain mass to our west slowly working its way east. There will be some showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder of western portions of the state late this evening.
WET TO THE WEST: The main weather story this week continue to be the tremendous amounts of rain that are falling to the west of Alabama as the “Maya Express” continues to be pulled north ahead of the very deep upper-level low over Mexico. The western portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley had another very wet 24-hours, with an additional 6-10 inches of rain. This is the second day with very high rainfall totals. Unfortunately this system is rather slow to move anywhere, so much of the area that has seen so much rain over the last couple of days remains under numerous flood/flash flood watches, warnings, and advisories.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: We are going to see a few more showers for our Friday and Saturday. It will not rain all day and the shower activity will remain scattered. However, despite the showers, the overall weather pattern won’t change much. The axis of heaviest rain is expected to stay west of Alabama through much of Central Mississippi where flash flood watches are in effect. The scattered showers in Alabama, though possible state wide, still look to be confined to the western counties of the state. Both days, the sun could peek out at times, and afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s with some lower 80s. No all day washouts, and though you will have to dodge a few raindrops, we think that most outdoor events should be okay.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Finally, the upper low that has been over Mexico will finally lift out and it still expected to be weakening. As it lifts northeast, it will finally bring us better rain chances and it sure looks like the best chance of rain statewide will come during the time frame, especially from Saturday evening, overnight and into the first part of Sunday. A few thunderstorms are possible as well, but for now severe weather or flooding is not expected in our state as the dynamics and shear with this system will be decreasing.
NEXT WEEK: We will maintain the risk of scattered showers Monday, as a weak upper-level impulse crosses the Southeast. However, the weather looks dry Tuesday and Wednesday with warm afternoons and pleasant nights. As of now, it still appears our next significant chance of rain will come with a cold front that looks to approach the state on Thursday March 17. The GFS shows cooler temperatures behind this feature as well.