Strong Storms Possible Thursday, Improving Weekend Weather
[gtxvideo vid=”ugWjlgso” playlist=”” pid=”2gxTqEDg” thumb=”http://player.gtxcel.com/thumbs/ugWjlgso-120.jpg?cachebust=1458790623583″ vtitle=”3/23/16 Ryan 10PM Forecast”]
THURSDAY’S SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: Most of Alabama is under a threat for severe weather Thursday. The SPC maintains the “slight risk” area of severe weather over the northern two-thirds of the state. Roughly along and north of the U.S. 84 corridor from Grove Hill, to Greenville, to Troy. A “marginal risk” extends south to Mobile and Dothan. The highest risk of severe storms will come in the “slight risk” area over North and Central Alabama. The risk decreases over far South Alabama as upper support will be much more limited there.
THE SETUP: A deep surface low over the Great Lakes is sending a cold front into the Southeast. A deep upper trough will help push the cold front through the state and we are going to see widespread showers and storms, and some of these could be strong to severe. Instability with this event is not overly impressive, but current forecast values can support severe weather. However, the dynamics with this system are pretty impressive. Nevertheless, tomorrow is one of those days where everyone will need to stay weather aware and make sure you have a way to receive severe weather alerts!
WHAT TO EXPECT: A few tornadoes are certainly possible and the highest tornado threat will come over northern Alabama. However, the core threat will come from strong, possibly damaging straight-line winds. Some of the stronger storms will also be capable of producing some hail.
TIMING: While a few strong/severe storms could enter Northwest Alabama by late morning, the core window for severe weather will come from 12:00 noon to 10:00 p.m. The severe storms will gradually move from west to east during this 10 hour period. This will be a rather quick hitting system, and issues with flooding are not expected. Rainfall totals of 1/2 to 1 inch are expected.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: This system will be out of here by Friday and drier air returns. We are forecasting a mostly sunny sky with a high in the low 70s. Friday morning will be chilly with a lows in the mid-40s possible. The dry weather will continue into Saturday, and for the most part, Saturday is shaping up to be a very nice day. We are forecasting a mainly sunny sky with a high in the upper 70s.
EASTER SUNDAY: We had been thinking that rain would return to the state Sunday. Looking at the latest 12Z GFS, the model has trended drier, so we are going to have to watch the next few runs, and we may be backing off the rain chances on Sunday, however, as of now, we will leave the threat of rain in the forecast. Stay tuned for forecast updates.
FOR NEXT WEEK: This morning, the GFS (American model) showed showers and storms for Monday, while the ECMWF (European model) was totally dry. The 12Z GFS has now come around to the drier solution and we are going to be dialing back the rain chances for the first part of next week. By tomorrow, we may remove the rain chances all together. However, both models agree on the next rain and storm event will come around next Thursday. Like every system this time of year, that system will need to be monitored for severe weather potential.