A Weather Hodgepodge

An interesting week of weather is ahead. We are talking one more day with decent rain chances, but then a pattern change will allow for sunny and dry weather to move into the state. Slightly lower humidity levels are expected midweek, before the heat cranks back up late in the week. Oh and did I mention tropical troubles in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Colin has developed. A lot to discuss today…

An approaching frontal boundary will allow for more showers and storms for South/Central Alabama the rest of today and into Monday. A very moisture-rich air mass is in place, and with some dynamic forcing, it is not going to take much for thunderstorms development. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, intense rainfall, and lots of lightning. We are not particularly concerned with a severe weather threat, just be aware some storms could pack a punch. We could all see a nice soaking rain, and an additional inch of rain is possible.

We now have our third tropical storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph meaning we now have Tropical Storm Colin. Late this afternoon the center of circulation was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 87.9 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 12 mph.

NHC

A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight through Monday. On this track, the center of the storm is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area Monday afternoon.

storm_93

Some strengthening is forecast for the system before reaching the coast of Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). Locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.

WHERE DID ALL THE SUNSPOTS GO?: Something interesting is happening on the sun. On Friday, June 3rd, the sunspot number dropped to 0, and the solar disk is still blank this weekend. This is a sign that the sun is slowly shifting into a new phase of the solar cycle.

SUNNY & DRY WEEK AHEAD: As the front and upper-level trough push through the state, we are going to see improving weather. The bulk of the rain will be exiting out of here Monday. For South/Central Alabama, we dry out late tomorrow and stay that way through the work week as a more zonal flow establishes itself over the state. That will allow for a drier air mass to move into the state, and we will see those dew points, currently in the 70s, drop back into the 50s; which will be feeling more comfortable. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal with readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. By Friday and into next weekend, an upper ridge to our west will gradually slide eastward to become the main player in our weather pattern. This means a return summer-like temperatures with the highs by next weekend in the mid and upper 90s possible. Below is model output for temperatures the next two weeks for Montgomery. This is NOT an official forecast, but just a trend on what the computer models are suggesting temperatures could be during this time. I don’t think we see triple digit heat just yet!!!

KMGM_2016060512_min_max_16

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