The Heat Goes On

THE HEAT GOES ON: With the ridge in place, our overall day to day weather is not changing much this week. Each day will feature a partly to mostly sunny sky, with high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s for much of South/Central Alabama. The only heat relief will come from a few afternoon storms, these will be few and far between, but where they do pop-up, they will pack a punch. We like to say, BIG HEAT, BIG STORMS, and that is exactly what we can expect each afternoon as any storms which develops will produce lots of lightning, gusty winds, and intense rainfall, but rain chances are generally less than 10% chance each day.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The ridge begins to weaken and shift westward. Still, on Saturday, showers and storms will be widely spaced with a partly sunny sky along with a high in the mid 90s. Then, we expect an increase in the number of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday as there is the potential of a tropical wave moving north out of the Gulf which will finally bring us higher rain chances and more clouds. With the better chance for rain, we should see highs back down into the upper 80s on Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The better rain chances look to stick around for Monday and Tuesday, and we will keep more clouds than sun in the forecast as well. Highs should hold in the upper 80s. For the rest of next week, we should see a decrease in the coverage of showers and storms with highs likely back in the lower 90s.

IN THE TROPICS: For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, and extending northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds while the system moves very slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida by late Friday and continuing into the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity, some slight development of this system is still possible on Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend or early next week when the system is expected to be a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan

Categories: Daily Forecast, Weather