Active Weather Pattern Ahead

MORNING RAIN/STORMS: The storms are weakening as they move across Alabama, but they could still produce strong, gusty winds and some hail. Tornado chances are very low, but not zero, so we will need to mention the low chance of a brief, isolated tornado and for that reason the SPC maintains the “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms through this morning.

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The main window for the storms to roll through the state is from now until about 10AM, then a dry slot moves into the state, and the rest of today will be dry with more sun than clouds and very warm temperatures as highs are likely to climb into the lower 80s.

MORE RAIN/STORMS: Tonight more rain and storms are expected to develop as a warm front start to lift north out of the Gulf, bringing an unstable air mass back to Alabama, and occasional rain and storms will highlight the forecast by Friday afternoon. Where storms do form they could be strong, especially Friday afternoon when the air becomes very unstable and the SPC has defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of the state for Friday afternoon and night.

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The main threats Friday will come from hail and strong winds with clusters of storms rolling east along the warm front in place across the state. This unsettled weather continues into Saturday as well, with more strong to severe storms for at least the first half of the day, and the SPC has much of Central and South Alabama highlighted in a “slight risk” (level 2/5) for severe storms for Saturday morning.

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Again, wind and hail are the main concerns, but late Friday night and Saturday there is a chance for some tornadoes and you’ll need to make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings if there are needed, especially during the overnight hour. The rain and storms should push down into Gulf of Mexico by the afternoon as drier air flows into the state, and for now Sunday looks mostly rain-free statewide with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs over the weekend will generally be in the mid and upper 70s.

Rainfall totals between now and Saturday afternoon could be in the 1-3 inch range across the state, so some isolated flooding is possible, but of course the main concern will continue to be numerous rivers across the state, which continue to run full from recent rains.

NEXT WEEK: The dry weather continues for Monday and likely Tuesday, but by midweek, clouds return and more showers and storms are possible for the second half of the week. The pattern the next few weeks looks fairly active, which is should be for spring in Alabama, and every system will have to be watched for the possibility of strong and severe storms. Temperatures will remain warm with 70s and 80s expected most afternoons.

Have a blessed Thursday!!!
Ryan

Categories: Daily Forecast, Weather