Quiet Weather Pattern Continues
High pressure and dry air remains in place across the state and really the entire Southeast meaning our weather will remain quiet and pretty routine for early fall in Alabama. The days will feature tons of sunshine and very warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s for most locations, while nights will be clear and nice with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. In the coming days, moisture levels will rise just west of the state, but I think these levels will remain low over Alabama so though more clouds are possible, I am just not sure we can get any showers to develop in Alabama and rain chances will remain less than 10%.
WEEKEND WEATHER: More of the same as the pattern will not change for the weekend. We are forecasting mainly sunny days both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 80s for most spots.
NEXT WEEK: The weather pattern still looks relatively quiet and warm. Rain chances will remain under 30% with the relatively dry air mass in place. Highs next week will be in the 80s, while lows will hold in the 60s.
IN THE TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands. We could also see Peter again, and then Victor and Wanda.
1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
2. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
3. A well-defined low pressure area associated with the remnants of Peter is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has become less organized since early Monday. Although strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent significant development, this system could still become a short-lived tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By Wednesday, however, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
HURRICANE SAM: The center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 53.9 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn toward the north is expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday and Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft is 953 mb (28.15 inches).
Have a Tuesday like no other!!!