Fantastic Fall Day; More Active Weather Rest of Week
TERRIFIC TUESDAY: Today will be a beautiful fall day across Alabama as we will be in-between systems. Expect a sunny day with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s across the state. Tonight, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
MIDWEEK STORM THREAT: Our next storm system begins to take shape late today to our west and moves eastward through the day tomorrow. Expect increasing clouds through the day, but it appears the rain and storms will not arrive until after sunset tomorrow night and through the early morning hours
As the rain/storms move through, there could be some stronger storms. However, new model data shows basically no instability over the northern 2/3 of the state, and the severe weather threat will be limited to the southern counties of the state. The SPC has defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) for much of Mobile and Baldwin Counties, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) as far north as Butler, Monroeville, and Andalusia through 7AM Thursday morning.
After 7AM Thursday, and through the midday hours Thursday, the SPC has a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for areas of Southeast Alabama.
Within the risk areas, there is the potential of damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes. Not a major threat, but certainly something to watch as the system moves through the state.
Wednesday will be mild with highs in the mid and upper 70s, but behind the front on Thursday, temperatures are likely to fall from the 70s into the 60s with clouds and scattered areas of light rain.
FRIDAY AND HALLOWEEN WEEKEND: An upper low will hold over the region Friday and our Friday will remain cloudy and very cool and blustery day with temperatures struggling to reach the low 60s. Some light rain is likely at times over portions of Alabama through Friday night. Any lingering light rain there should end Saturday morning, and we will forecast gradual clearing Saturday afternoon as the deep upper low lifts away from the region. Saturday will stay cool with a highs between 61 and 66 degrees. Sunday will be an amazing day of weather with sunshine in full supply along with a high in the low 70s.
THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER: For now the week looks dry with pleasant days and fair nights… highs in the 70s, while lows in the 40s are expected.
IN THE TROPICS: A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system with gale-force winds is located about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This gale area is forecast to move north-northeastward today, and could acquire some limited subtropical characteristics before it merges with a frontal system by this afternoon. The extratropical low is then expected to meander off the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coasts tonight and Wednesday, bringing rain and wind impacts to portions of those areas. After that time, the low is expected to move eastward away from the U.S. coast, and could again acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves eastward or southeastward over the warmer waters of the Central Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.