More Rain and Storms Later Today and this Evening

NEW DAY, SAME FORECAST: It is warm and very humid across Alabama this week, with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 80s to low 90s for South/Central Alabama. A weak, stalled boundary continues to sit across Central Alabama and remains the focal point for numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms. Though rain and storms are possible at anytime, the greatest coverage will come between 1PM and 10PM. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day is 50-70 percent, it won’t rain everywhere every day, but many places stand a good chance of seeing several downpours during the next several days.

Summer storms can pack a punch; the main issue is lightning. Also, they can produce tropical downpours which can lead to areas of isolated flash flooding, plus it is not entirely out of the question to have a few severe storms along the way this week, with gusty winds the main threat. It is very hard to know exactly where storms will occur, you just have to watch radar trends through the day. When it is not raining, we are generally seeing a mix of sun and clouds.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: The weather won’t change much over the long holiday weekend. You will see some sun at times Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but from time to time a passing shower or storm is likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s and low 90s. Again, be prepared to dodge raindrops along the way, but it will be no “weekend washout”

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge will remain mostly west of Alabama, but we can expect afternoon highs to return to the low to mid 90s by the middle of the week. Expect partly sunny days, with scattered, mainly afternoon and evening storms.

085708 5day Cone No Line And Wind

WAITING ON BONNIE: Potential tropical cyclone two continues tracking west. At 500 AM AST, the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 65.4 West. The system is moving toward the west near 30 mph, and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Two Atl 5d0 1

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next day or two. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight or Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Also, a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next couple of days, and some gradual development is possible later this week. The overall system is forecast to be near the Windward islands by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Enjoy the rain if you get it!!!
Ryan

Categories: Daily Forecast, Weather