Welcome to July…Humidity and Daily Storms
Another very warm and muggy day with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. We are seeing a mix of sun and clouds, and watching the radar for those daily, random showers and storms to develop across the Alabama landscape. As we see each day, summer storms can pack a punch with tremendous amounts of lightning. Also, they can produce tropical downpours which can lead to areas of isolated flash flooding, plus it is not entirely out of the question to have a few severe storms along the way, with gusty winds the main threat. This time of year, it is almost impossible to know exactly when and where storms will occur, you just have to watch radar trends through the day.
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: The weather won’t change much over the long holiday weekend. You will see some sun at times Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but from time to time a passing shower or storm is likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s. Again, be prepared to dodge raindrops along the way, but it will be no “weekend washout”
REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge will remain mostly west of Alabama, but we can expect afternoon highs to return to the low 90s by the middle of the week. Expect partly sunny days, with scattered, mainly afternoon and evening storms.
STILL WAITING ON BONNIE: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was centered near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 79.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 18 mph, and a continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches the coast of Central America. Some weakening is expected tonight while the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but restrengthening is anticipated Saturday through Monday while it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is expected become a tropical storm today while slowing down over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). We note, when the system crosses into the Pacific Ocean after landfall in Central America, it will get a new name…Darby.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure in the far western Gulf of Mexico has degenerated into a surface trough and is now moving inland along the southern Texas coast. Development of this system is no longer anticipated as it moves farther inland. Regardless, heavy rain and associated flooding are possible over portions of southeast Texas. For more on the potential for heavy rain and flooding, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office.
Also, a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave moves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands today and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
The next two names up are Colin and Danielle.
Have an incredible and safe Independence Day weekend!!!