Very Hot Final Hours of Summer; Watching the Caribbean

FALL ARRIVES TONIGHT: Temperatures will be in the mid 90s across much of Alabama this afternoon, about ten degrees above average, and not too far from record values for the 22nd of September. A cold front will come through the state later today, it could squeeze out a few showers, but it should mostly come through in dry fashion this evening, and that will bring heat relief by Friday and the weekend. By the way, Fall officially arrives are 8:03 PM CDT as the Autumnal Equinox occurs.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Tomorrow will be a sunny day with a high in the mid 80s, much cooler and more seasonable for this time of year. Saturday morning will be refreshing with upper 50s and lower 60s, the high Saturday will be in the mid 80s with a sunny sky. Then, for Sunday, we expect a mix of sun and clouds, and we will mention the chance of a few showers Sunday afternoon and evening as another cold front moves through the state. Moisture will be very limited, and rain amounts will be light and spotty. The high Sunday will be in the upper 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful weather for high school games Friday night across Alabama; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling into the 60s.

Saturday, Auburn hosts Missouri at Jordan-Hare Stadium (11a CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from near 77 and kickoff, into the low 80s by the second half.

Alabama will host Vanderbilt at Bryant Denny Stadium Saturday evening (6:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from 81 degrees at kickoff, into the low 70s by the final whistle.

HURRICANE FIONA: The center of Hurricane Fiona was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 70.6 West. Fiona is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph. A north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower northward motion beginning Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Fi

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph with higher gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Some weakening is expected to begin on Friday, but Fiona is forecast to still be producing hurricane-force winds Friday night and Saturday after it has become post-tropical. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. NOAA buoy 41047, about 50 miles west-northwest of the center of Fiona, recently reported a sustained wind of 62 mph and a gust to 80 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). NOAA buoy 41047 recently reported a pressure of 975.0 mb

FUTURE HERMINE: Most of our attention is focused on (Invest 98L) near the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week.

Two Atl 5d1

The system will likely be over Cuba, or near the Yucatan channel early next week. There is a reasonable chance it will be at hurricane strength as it approaches the southern Gulf of Mexico, but the important message here is that there is NO skill in forecasting the placement or intensity of a tropical cyclone more than 7 days in advance.

IF any part of the Gulf Coast is threatened, it will be toward the end of next week (8-10 days from now). Don’t be suckered into the rogue Facebook pages with scary deterministic model output; those maps mean nothing at this point. Once the system develops in the Caribbean and we begin to get data from hurricane hunter aircraft, we begin to have a clearer picture of what might happen. Don’t cancel any beach trip, just keep an eye on it.

NEXT WEEK: Most of the week looks dry at this point with very pleasant temperatures; highs around 80, with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Have an amazing Thursday!!!
Ryan

Categories: Daily Forecast, Weather